Barbastro 0–1 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Barbastro

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

Fran Rotellar 54'

9/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Barbastro62%

×Draw25%

San Juan Mozarrifar13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.56

Barbastro

1.55

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.56

Barbastro creates 177% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 24 away

1.02

creates per match

0.46

0.65

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

87%

Barbastro or San Juan Mozarrifar

75%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

38%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

33%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

79%

Barbastro 2+ goals

46%

Barbastro 3+ goals

20%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

43%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

11%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

82%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.55

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Barbastro scores more

62%

level

25%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

13%

Barbastro at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

Fran Rotellar

64'

Dani Marqués← Fran Rotellar

75'

Dorigatti← Jorge Ramos

78'

Luismi Lopez← Rupérez

79'

Javier Torrecilla← Roncea

85'

Lucas Fumanal← Álvaro Barrero

89'

Falo Burriel← Berdún

Barbastro

San

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Daniel Martinez

75'▲Dorigatti←▼Jorge Ramos

79'▲Javier Torrecilla←▼Roncea

85'▲Lucas Fumanal←▼Álvaro Barrero

Barbastro substitutes

DorigattiTorrecillaFumanal

Manager: Nacho Forcén

64'▲Dani Marqués←▼Fran Rotellar

78'▲Luismi Lopez←▼Rupérez

89'▲Falo Burriel←▼Berdún

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

MarquésLopezBurriel