Barbastro 1–0 Sabiñánigo: Result & Stats

Barbastro

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabiñánigo

Jorge Conte 87'

2/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barbastro47%

×Draw27%

Sabiñánigo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchSabiñánigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.95

Barbastro

1.39

Sabiñánigo

0.95

Barbastro creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

1.02

creates per match

1.24

0.65

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Sabiñánigo

1.24

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Sabiñánigo

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Sabiñánigo →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

74%

Barbastro or Sabiñánigo

73%

Draw or Sabiñánigo

53%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

23%

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

75%

Barbastro 2+ goals

40%

Barbastro 3+ goals

16%

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals

61%

Sabiñánigo 2+ goals

25%

Sabiñánigo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

65%

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Sabiñánigo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sabiñánigo attack 1.24 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barbastro scores more

47%

level

27%

Sabiñánigo scores more

26%

Barbastro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

M. El Kentaoui← Daniel Gracia

70'

Lucas Elbaile← Jaime

70'

Jorge Ruiz← Gorka Ojeda

70'

Lucas Fumanal← Sergio Mendinueta

75'

Borja Berrendo← Francisco Blasco

80'

Ángel Luis← Toñin Echevarria

87'

Jorge Conte

89'

Vicente Torres← Jorge Ramos

Barbastro

Sabiñánigo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Daniel Martinez

70'▲Lucas Elbaile←▼Jaime

70'▲Jorge Ruiz←▼Gorka Ojeda

70'▲Lucas Fumanal←▼Sergio Mendinueta

89'▲Vicente Torres←▼Jorge Ramos

Barbastro substitutes

ElbaileRuizFumanalTorres

Manager: Pitu Lerga

64'▲M. El Kentaoui←▼Daniel Gracia

75'▲Borja Berrendo←▼Francisco Blasco

80'▲Ángel Luis←▼Toñin Echevarria

Sabiñánigo substitutes

KentaouiBerrendoLuis