Barbastro 2–1 Illueca: Result & Stats

Barbastro

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Illueca

Jorge Ramos 43'

Gorka Ojeda 15'

Asier Muñoz 18'

5/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro44%

×Draw29%

Illueca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchIllueca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.88

Barbastro

1.22

Illueca

0.88

Barbastro creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

1.02

creates per match

1.10

0.65

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Illueca

1.10

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Illueca

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Illueca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Illueca →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

73%

Barbastro or Illueca

71%

Draw or Illueca

56%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

19%

Illueca wins by 2+

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

70%

Barbastro 2+ goals

34%

Barbastro 3+ goals

12%

Illueca 1+ goals

59%

Illueca 2+ goals

22%

Illueca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

62%

Illueca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Illueca away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Illueca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Illueca attack 1.10 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barbastro scores more

44%

level

29%

Illueca scores more

27%

Barbastro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

18'

43'

59'

Kun← Asier Muñoz

59'

Edgar Caparrós← Daniel Ormad

77'

Dani Suárez← Jorge López

77'

Jesus Fajardo← Álex Gracia

81'

Jorge Ruiz← Gorka Ojeda

81'

Lucas Fumanal← Jorge Ramos

Barbastro

Illueca

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ojeda

Mendinuet

⚽

▼

Ramos

Alvarado

Conte

Manager: Daniel Martinez

81'▲Jorge Ruiz←▼Gorka Ojeda

81'▲Lucas Fumanal←▼Jorge Ramos

Barbastro substitutes

RuizFumanal

Manager: Javier Romero

7'▲Chino←▼Víctor Merino

59'▲Kun←▼Asier Muñoz

59'▲Edgar Caparrós←▼Daniel Ormad

77'▲Dani Suárez←▼Jorge López

77'▲Jesus Fajardo←▼Álex Gracia

Illueca substitutes

ChinoKunCaparrósSuárezFajardo