Barbastro vs Fraga: Preview & Prediction

Barbastro

CANC

00:00

Fraga

4/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro46%

×Draw29%

Fraga25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchFraga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.85

Barbastro

1.25

Fraga

0.85

Barbastro creates 47% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

1.02

creates per match

1.06

0.65

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Fraga

1.06

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Fraga

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Fraga →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

75%

Barbastro or Fraga

71%

Draw or Fraga

54%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

21%

Fraga wins by 2+

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

71%

Barbastro 2+ goals

36%

Barbastro 3+ goals

13%

Fraga 1+ goals

57%

Fraga 2+ goals

21%

Fraga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

64%

Fraga (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fraga attack 1.06 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barbastro scores more

46%

level

29%

Fraga scores more

25%

Barbastro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barbastro face Fraga (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Barbastro hosting Fraga. Match starts April 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barbastro host Fraga at Estadio Municipal de Deportes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Barbastro vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Barbastro face Fraga (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)