Barbastro 0–2 Cariñena: Result & Stats

Barbastro

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cariñena

Patrick Freitas 47'

Lucas Elbaile 22' (OG)

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 8Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro52%

×Draw27%

Cariñena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchCariñena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.78

Barbastro

1.43

Cariñena

0.78

Barbastro creates 83% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 82 away

1.02

creates per match

0.91

0.65

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Cariñena

0.91

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Cariñena

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Cariñena →

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

80%

Barbastro or Cariñena

73%

Draw or Cariñena

48%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

26%

Cariñena wins by 2+

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

76%

Barbastro 2+ goals

42%

Barbastro 3+ goals

17%

Cariñena 1+ goals

54%

Cariñena 2+ goals

18%

Cariñena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

72%

Cariñena (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barbastro scores more

52%

level

27%

Cariñena scores more

20%

Barbastro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Lucas ElbaileOwn goal

47'

Patrick Freitas

67'

Arturo Peralta← Cristian Castaño

67'

Salcedo← Rafinha

67'

Jorge Ramos← Oscar Pérez

70'

Nenad Stokic← Alberto Cirac

82'

Alejandro López← Patrick Freitas

84'

Fernando Arnedillo← Lucas Elbaile

89'

Iván Falo← S. Sow

Barbastro

Cariñena

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo Gil

67'▲Arturo Peralta←▼Cristian Castaño

67'▲Salcedo←▼Rafinha

67'▲Jorge Ramos←▼Oscar Pérez

84'▲Fernando Arnedillo←▼Lucas Elbaile

Barbastro substitutes

PeraltaSalcedoRamosArnedillo

Manager: Humberto Arto

70'▲Nenad Stokic←▼Alberto Cirac

82'▲Alejandro López←▼Patrick Freitas

89'▲Iván Falo←▼S. Sow

Cariñena substitutes

StokicLópezFalo