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Barbastro vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Barbastro
Barbastro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
11/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro38%
×Draw31%
Atlético Monzón31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbastro
1.07
Atlético Monzón
0.94

Barbastro creates 14% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 115 away

creates per match

Barbastro
1.02
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Barbastro
0.65
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw
69%
Barbastro or Atlético Monzón
69%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
62%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals
66%
Barbastro 2+ goals
29%
Barbastro 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barbastro scores more
38%
level
31%
Atlético Monzón scores more
31%

Barbastro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbastro vs Atlético Monzón

Barbastro and Atlético Monzón drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.