Barbados Soccer Academy 1–4 UWI Blackbirds

Barbados Soccer Academy

FT

1 – 4

UWI Blackbirds

4/3/2024

Premier League · Round 5Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Barbados Soccer Academy12%

×Draw15%

UWI Blackbirds73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barbados Soccer AcademyExpected goals in this matchUWI Blackbirds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

2.93

Barbados Soccer Academy

1.16

UWI Blackbirds

2.93

UWI Blackbirds creates 153% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 37 away

0.73

creates per match

1.59

4.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Barbados Soccer Academy

0.73

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

allows per match

Barbados Soccer Academy

4.27

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbados Soccer Academy+0.00on par

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbados Soccer Academy ↓

UWI Blackbirds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Barbados Soccer Academy or draw

27%

Barbados Soccer Academy or UWI Blackbirds

85%

Draw or UWI Blackbirds

88%

Winning margin

Barbados Soccer Academy wins by 2+

4%

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Barbados Soccer Academy 1+ goals

69%

Barbados Soccer Academy 2+ goals

32%

Barbados Soccer Academy 3+ goals

11%

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

94%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

78%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Barbados Soccer Academy (draw refunded)

15%

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbados Soccer Academy at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 11 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbados Soccer Academy attack 0.73 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Barbados Soccer Academy defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Barbados Soccer Academy scores more

12%

level

15%

UWI Blackbirds scores more

73%

UWI Blackbirds at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff