Barbados Soccer Academy 1–0 Ellerton

Barbados Soccer Academy

FT

1 – 0

Ellerton

3/15/2024

Premier League · Round 4Valerie Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Barbados Soccer Academy9%

×Draw13%

Ellerton78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barbados Soccer AcademyExpected goals in this matchEllerton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

3.22

Barbados Soccer Academy

1.05

Ellerton

3.22

Ellerton creates 207% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

0.73

creates per match

2.17

4.27

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Barbados Soccer Academy

0.73

Ellerton

2.17

allows per match

Barbados Soccer Academy

4.27

Ellerton

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbados Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbados Soccer Academy ↓

Ellerton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Barbados Soccer Academy or draw

22%

Barbados Soccer Academy or Ellerton

87%

Draw or Ellerton

91%

Winning margin

Barbados Soccer Academy wins by 2+

3%

Ellerton wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Barbados Soccer Academy 1+ goals

65%

Barbados Soccer Academy 2+ goals

28%

Barbados Soccer Academy 3+ goals

9%

Ellerton 1+ goals

96%

Ellerton 2+ goals

82%

Ellerton 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Barbados Soccer Academy (draw refunded)

10%

Ellerton (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbados Soccer Academy at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 11 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbados Soccer Academy attack 0.73 + Ellerton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ellerton attack 2.17 + Barbados Soccer Academy defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Barbados Soccer Academy scores more

9%

level

13%

Ellerton scores more

78%

Ellerton at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff