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Barbadás vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barbadás
Barbadás
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Barbadás34%
×Draw29%
Rápido Bouzas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbadás
1.05
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 75 away

creates per match

Barbadás
0.88
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Barbadás
1.12
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw
63%
Barbadás or Rápido Bouzas
71%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
66%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+
13%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals
65%
Barbadás 2+ goals
28%
Barbadás 3+ goals
9%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
67%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
31%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)
47%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barbadás scores more
34%
level
29%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
37%

Rápido Bouzas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbadás vs Rápido Bouzas

Rápido Bouzas beat Barbadás 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.