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Barbadás vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barbadás
Barbadás
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barbadás54%
×Draw25%
Pontevedra II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbadás
1.65
Pontevedra II
0.92

Barbadás creates 79% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barbadás
0.88
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Barbadás
1.12
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw
79%
Barbadás or Pontevedra II
75%
Draw or Pontevedra II
46%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+
29%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals
81%
Barbadás 2+ goals
49%
Barbadás 3+ goals
23%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
60%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
23%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)
72%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barbadás scores more
54%
level
25%
Pontevedra II scores more
21%

Barbadás at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barbadás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbadás vs Pontevedra II

Barbadás beat Pontevedra II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.