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Barbadás vs Paiosaco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barbadás
Barbadás
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paiosaco
Paiosaco
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Barbadás44%
×Draw27%
Paiosaco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbadás
1.37
Paiosaco
1.04

Barbadás creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Barbadás
0.88
Paiosaco
0.97

allows per match

Barbadás
1.12
Paiosaco
1.86

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par
Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Paiosaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw
72%
Barbadás or Paiosaco
73%
Draw or Paiosaco
56%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+
21%
Paiosaco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals
75%
Barbadás 2+ goals
40%
Barbadás 3+ goals
16%
Paiosaco 1+ goals
65%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
28%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)
61%
Paiosaco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barbadás scores more
44%
level
27%
Paiosaco scores more
28%

Barbadás at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barbadás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Barbadás 0–0 Paiosaco

Barbadás and Paiosaco drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.