Barbadás 0–0 Coruña: Result & Stats

Barbadás

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coruña

10/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barbadás31%

×Draw29%

Coruña40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbadásExpected goals in this matchCoruña

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.21

Barbadás

1.03

Coruña

1.21

Coruña creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

1.29

1.12

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Barbadás

0.88

Coruña

1.29

allows per match

Barbadás

1.12

Coruña

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par

Coruña+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Coruña →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw

60%

Barbadás or Coruña

71%

Draw or Coruña

69%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+

12%

Coruña wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals

64%

Barbadás 2+ goals

28%

Barbadás 3+ goals

Coruña 1+ goals

70%

Coruña 2+ goals

34%

Coruña 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)

44%

Coruña (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Coruña away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Coruña defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Coruña attack 1.29 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barbadás scores more

31%

level

29%

Coruña scores more

40%

Coruña at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coruña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff