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Barbadás vs Atlético Arteixo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barbadás
Barbadás
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Barbadás35%
×Draw28%
Atlético Arteixo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbadás
1.12
Atlético Arteixo
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Barbadás
0.88
Atlético Arteixo
1.22

allows per match

Barbadás
1.12
Atlético Arteixo
1.36

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par
Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Atlético Arteixo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw
63%
Barbadás or Atlético Arteixo
72%
Draw or Atlético Arteixo
65%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals
67%
Barbadás 2+ goals
31%
Barbadás 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)
48%
Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Atlético Arteixo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.22 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barbadás scores more
35%
level
28%
Atlético Arteixo scores more
37%

Atlético Arteixo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbadás vs Atlético Arteixo

Barbadás beat Atlético Arteixo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.