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Barau FC vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
10/5/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 7Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC60%
×Draw25%
Warri Wolves15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.59
Warri Wolves
0.65

Barau FC creates 145% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Warri Wolves
0.71

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
85%
Barau FC or Warri Wolves
75%
Draw or Warri Wolves
40%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
33%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
80%
Barau FC 2+ goals
47%
Barau FC 3+ goals
21%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
48%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
14%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
80%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Warri Wolves attack 0.71 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Barau FC scores more
60%
level
25%
Warri Wolves scores more
15%

Barau FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 0–1 Warri Wolves

Warri Wolves beat Barau FC 1-0 in NPFL on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.