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Barau FC vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Plateau United
Plateau United
3/2/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 28Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC58%
×Draw27%
Plateau United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.46
Plateau United
0.61

Barau FC creates 139% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 127 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
84%
Barau FC or Plateau United
73%
Draw or Plateau United
42%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
30%
Plateau United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
77%
Barau FC 2+ goals
43%
Barau FC 3+ goals
18%
Plateau United 1+ goals
46%
Plateau United 2+ goals
13%
Plateau United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
79%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Barau FC scores more
58%
level
27%
Plateau United scores more
16%

Barau FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 2–1 Plateau United

Barau FC beat Plateau United 2-1 in NPFL on March 2, 2026.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.