Barau FC 0–0 Katsina United: Result & Stats | NPFL

Barau FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Katsina United

3/29/2026

NPFL · Round 32Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC65%

×Draw25%

Katsina United10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barau FCExpected goals in this matchKatsina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.43

Barau FC

1.52

Katsina United

0.43

Barau FC creates 253% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

1.53

creates per match

0.29

0.58

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Barau FC

1.53

Katsina United

0.29

allows per match

Barau FC

0.58

Katsina United

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par

Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Katsina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw

90%

Barau FC or Katsina United

75%

Draw or Katsina United

35%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+

35%

Katsina United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals

78%

Barau FC 2+ goals

45%

Barau FC 3+ goals

20%

Katsina United 1+ goals

35%

Katsina United 2+ goals

7%

Katsina United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)

86%

Katsina United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barau FC scores more

65%

level

25%

Katsina United scores more

10%

Barau FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff