Barau FC 1–0 Ikorodu City: Result & Stats | NPFL

Barau FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ikorodu City

U. Moses 29'

2/2/2026

NPFL · Round 24Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC59%

×Draw26%

Ikorodu City15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barau FCExpected goals in this matchIkorodu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.63

Barau FC

1.52

Ikorodu City

0.63

Barau FC creates 141% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.53

creates per match

0.68

0.58

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barau FC

1.53

Ikorodu City

0.68

allows per match

Barau FC

0.58

Ikorodu City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Ikorodu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw

85%

Barau FC or Ikorodu City

74%

Draw or Ikorodu City

41%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+

31%

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals

78%

Barau FC 2+ goals

45%

Barau FC 3+ goals

20%

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

47%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

13%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)

79%

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barau FC scores more

59%

level

26%

Ikorodu City scores more

15%

Barau FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

65'

65'

65'

66'

D. Ibifubara← F. Temitope

72'

I. Y. Sulaiman← H. Ezeonye

82'

A. Ayodeji← I. Ayoola

82'

J. Jonah← A. Tomiwa

89'

A. N. Kwame

Barau

Ikorodu

34

27

37

16

21

13

24

▼

Tomiwa

25

▼

Temitope

31

▼

10

20

1

33

3

22

35

25

▼

Ekawu

8

Maidubuji

11

Anthony

29

⚽

▼

Moses

19

▼

Ezeonye

12

▼

Umar

Manager: Ladan Bosso

65'▲Y. Ibrahim←▼U. Moses

65'▲A. N. Kwame←▼M. Umar

65'▲J. Atule←▼H. Ekawu

72'▲I. Y. Sulaiman←▼H. Ezeonye

Barau FC substitutes

24Nwabulu2Okagube5Tsehuan30Ibrahim10Kwame20Tijjani14Okoko7Atule34Sulaiman

66'▲D. Ibifubara←▼F. Temitope

82'▲A. Ayodeji←▼I. Ayoola

82'▲J. Jonah←▼A. Tomiwa

Ikorodu City substitutes

22Ocheme6Ikechukwu32Olanrewaju11Ayodeji18Jonah17Alao8Bada38Ibifubara