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Barau FC vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
11/17/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC53%
×Draw29%
Enugu Rangers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.33
Enugu Rangers
0.65

Barau FC creates 105% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 130 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
82%
Barau FC or Enugu Rangers
71%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
47%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
26%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
74%
Barau FC 2+ goals
38%
Barau FC 3+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
48%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
14%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
74%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barau FC scores more
53%
level
29%
Enugu Rangers scores more
18%

Barau FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 2–0 Enugu Rangers

Barau FC beat Enugu Rangers 2-0 in NPFL on November 17, 2025.