Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barau FC vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
5/3/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 36Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC66%
×Draw23%
El Kanemi Warriors11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.68
El Kanemi Warriors
0.51

Barau FC creates 229% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 59 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
89%
Barau FC or El Kanemi Warriors
77%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
34%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
38%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
81%
Barau FC 2+ goals
50%
Barau FC 3+ goals
24%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
40%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
9%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
86%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Barau FC scores more
66%
level
23%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
11%

Barau FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barau FC 3 – 0 El Kanemi Warriors

Barau FC beat El Kanemi Warriors 3-0 in NPFL on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.