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Barau FC vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
9/7/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 3Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC55%
×Draw29%
Bendel Insurance17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.33
Bendel Insurance
0.59

Barau FC creates 125% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
83%
Barau FC or Bendel Insurance
71%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
45%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
27%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
74%
Barau FC 2+ goals
38%
Barau FC 3+ goals
15%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
45%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
12%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
77%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barau FC scores more
55%
level
29%
Bendel Insurance scores more
17%

Barau FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 1–1 Bendel Insurance

Barau FC and Bendel Insurance drew 1-1 in NPFL on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.