Barau FC 2–0 Abia Warriors: Result & Stats | NPFL

Barau FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Abia Warriors

3/15/2026

NPFL · Round 30Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC59%

×Draw26%

Abia Warriors16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barau FCExpected goals in this matchAbia Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.66

Barau FC

1.54

Abia Warriors

0.66

Barau FC creates 133% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

1.53

creates per match

0.73

0.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Barau FC

1.53

Abia Warriors

0.73

allows per match

Barau FC

0.58

Abia Warriors

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par

Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Abia Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw

84%

Barau FC or Abia Warriors

74%

Draw or Abia Warriors

41%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+

31%

Abia Warriors wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals

79%

Barau FC 2+ goals

45%

Barau FC 3+ goals

20%

Abia Warriors 1+ goals

48%

Abia Warriors 2+ goals

14%

Abia Warriors 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)

79%

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barau FC scores more

59%

level

26%

Abia Warriors scores more

16%

Barau FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff