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Baranovichi vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe — 1. Division 2018

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
5/27/20231. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baranovichi29%
×Draw22%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.46
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.22
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.94
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.69

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
51%
Baranovichi or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
78%
Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
71%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
13%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
77%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
43%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
18%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
86%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
58%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
37%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baranovichi scores more
29%
level
22%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
49%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baranovichi vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe

Baranovichi and Zhodino Yuzhnoe drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichi.