Baranovichi 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino: Result & Stats

Baranovichi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Zhodino

V. Potorocha 39'

7/11/2026

Premier League · Round 15Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Baranovichi27%

×Draw26%

Torpedo Zhodino47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaranovichiExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Zhodino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.50

Baranovichi

1.06

Torpedo Zhodino

1.50

Torpedo Zhodino creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 113 away

1.14

creates per match

1.29

1.71

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Baranovichi

1.14

Torpedo Zhodino

1.29

allows per match

Baranovichi

1.71

Torpedo Zhodino

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw

53%

Baranovichi or Torpedo Zhodino

74%

Draw or Torpedo Zhodino

73%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+

10%

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals

65%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

29%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

9%

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

78%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

44%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

36%

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.14 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.29 + Baranovichi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baranovichi scores more

27%

level

26%

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

47%

Torpedo Zhodino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

A. Bruy

39'

V. Potorocha↳ M. Artyukh

46'

M. Svidinskiy← E. Lapun

54'

N. Matusevich← G. Petrosyan

58'

N. Ryabykh← A. Bruy

58'

S. Penchuk← M. Shevchenko

65'

M. Gaevoy

67'

M. Ladutko← G. Agbo

74'

M. Ladutko

78'

Z. Gitselev← V. Potorocha

82'

V. Manaev← D. Zhulpa

82'

V. Nalivayko← V. Pobudey

89'

K. Muzychenko← M. Artyukh

90+2'

Z. Baranok

Baranovichi

Torpedo

Manager: Roman Kirenkin

46'▲M. Svidinskiy←▼E. Lapun

58'▲N. Ryabykh←▼A. Bruy

58'▲S. Penchuk←▼M. Shevchenko

78'▲Z. Gitselev←▼V. Potorocha

89'▲K. Muzychenko←▼M. Artyukh

Manager: Dmitri Lentsevich

54'▲N. Matusevich←▼G. Petrosyan

67'▲M. Ladutko←▼G. Agbo

82'▲V. Manaev←▼D. Zhulpa

82'▲V. Nalivayko←▼V. Pobudey