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Baranovichi vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
6/9/20241. Division1. Division · Round 10Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baranovichi50%
×Draw22%
Torpedo BelAZ II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.96
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.44

Baranovichi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.22
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.94
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
72%
Baranovichi or Torpedo BelAZ II
78%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
50%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
28%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
86%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
58%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
31%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
76%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
42%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
64%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baranovichi scores more
50%
level
22%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
28%

Baranovichi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baranovichi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baranovichi vs Torpedo BelAZ II

Baranovichi beat Torpedo BelAZ II 2-1 in 1. Division on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichi.