Baranovichi 0–0 Slonim: Result & Stats

Baranovichi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slonim

5/12/2024

1. Division · Round 6Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Baranovichi40%

×Draw24%

Slonim35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaranovichiExpected goals in this matchSlonim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.44

Baranovichi

1.56

Slonim

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 133 away

1.22

creates per match

0.94

1.94

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Baranovichi

1.22

Slonim

0.94

allows per match

Baranovichi

1.94

Slonim

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Slonim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Slonim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw

65%

Baranovichi or Slonim

76%

Draw or Slonim

60%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+

20%

Slonim wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals

79%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

46%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

21%

Slonim 1+ goals

76%

Slonim 2+ goals

42%

Slonim 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

53%

Slonim (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Slonim away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Slonim defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Slonim attack 0.94 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baranovichi scores more

40%

level

24%

Slonim scores more

35%

Baranovichi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baranovichi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff