Baranovichi 0–5 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats

Baranovichi

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Ruh Brest

6/8/2019

1. Division · Round 9Stadyen Lyakamatyu (Baranovichy (Baranovichi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Baranovichi17%

×Draw20%

Ruh Brest63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaranovichiExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.19

Baranovichi

1.04

Ruh Brest

2.19

Ruh Brest creates 111% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

2.43

1.94

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Baranovichi

1.22

Ruh Brest

2.43

allows per match

Baranovichi

1.94

Ruh Brest

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw

37%

Baranovichi or Ruh Brest

80%

Draw or Ruh Brest

83%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+

6%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals

65%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

28%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

9%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

89%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

64%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

21%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Baranovichi scores more

17%

level

20%

Ruh Brest scores more

63%

Ruh Brest at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff