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Baranovichi vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/25/20231. Division1. Division · Round 34Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Baranovichi23%
×Draw21%
ML Vitebsk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.31
ML Vitebsk
2.15

ML Vitebsk creates 64% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.22
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
44%
Baranovichi or ML Vitebsk
79%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
77%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
9%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
73%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
38%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
14%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
88%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
63%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
29%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baranovichi scores more
23%
level
21%
ML Vitebsk scores more
56%

ML Vitebsk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baranovichi vs ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Baranovichi 3-2 in 1. Division on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichi.