Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baranovichi vs Lokomotiv Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
11/5/20231. Division1. Division · Round 31Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Baranovichi29%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Gomel47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.25
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.67

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 34% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 121 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.22
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.40

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.29

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
53%
Baranovichi or Lokomotiv Gomel
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel
71%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
12%
Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
71%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
36%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
13%
Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
38%
Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.40 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baranovichi scores more
29%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
47%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Baranovichi 1–1 Lokomotiv Gomel

Baranovichi and Lokomotiv Gomel drew 1-1 in 1. Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichi.