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Baranovichi vs ABFF U17 — 1. Division 2018

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
ABFF U17
ABFF U17
9/13/20241. Division1. Division · Round 24Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baranovichi36%
×Draw25%
ABFF U1739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.44
ABFF U17
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.22
ABFF U17
1.06

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.94
ABFF U17
1.65

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

ABFF U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
61%
Baranovichi or ABFF U17
75%
Draw or ABFF U17
64%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
17%
ABFF U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
76%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
42%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
18%
ABFF U17 1+ goals
78%
ABFF U17 2+ goals
44%
ABFF U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
48%
ABFF U17 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baranovichi scores more
36%
level
25%
ABFF U17 scores more
39%

ABFF U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ABFF U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baranovichi vs ABFF U17

Baranovichi and ABFF U17 drew 2-2 in 1. Division on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichi.