Barakaldo 4–2 Tolosa: Result & Stats

Barakaldo

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tolosa

10/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Barakaldo61%

×Draw22%

Tolosa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarakaldoExpected goals in this matchTolosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.91

Barakaldo

1.93

Tolosa

0.91

Barakaldo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

2.12

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Barakaldo

2.12

Tolosa

0.96

allows per match

Barakaldo

0.85

Tolosa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Tolosa →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw

83%

Barakaldo or Tolosa

78%

Draw or Tolosa

39%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+

36%

Tolosa wins by 2+

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals

85%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

57%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

30%

Tolosa 1+ goals

60%

Tolosa 2+ goals

23%

Tolosa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

78%

Tolosa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 2.12 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.93

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Barakaldo defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barakaldo scores more

61%

level

22%

Tolosa scores more

17%

Barakaldo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff