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Barakaldo vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
CANC
00:00
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Barakaldo44%
×Draw25%
Salamanca UDS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.51
Salamanca UDS
1.23

Barakaldo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Salamanca UDS
1.00

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Salamanca UDS
1.73

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
69%
Barakaldo or Salamanca UDS
75%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
56%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
22%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
78%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
44%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
19%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
71%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
35%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
59%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barakaldo scores more
44%
level
25%
Salamanca UDS scores more
31%

Barakaldo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barakaldo host Salamanca UDS

March 22, 2020: Barakaldo take on Salamanca UDS in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barakaldo host Salamanca UDS at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.