Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barakaldo vs Guadalajara — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guadalajara
Guadalajara
1/18/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barakaldo53%
×Draw25%
Guadalajara22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.65
Guadalajara
0.96

Barakaldo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.55
Guadalajara
1.00

allows per match

Barakaldo
0.92
Guadalajara
1.74

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Guadalajara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Guadalajara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
78%
Barakaldo or Guadalajara
75%
Draw or Guadalajara
47%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
29%
Guadalajara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
81%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
49%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
23%
Guadalajara 1+ goals
62%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
25%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
71%
Guadalajara (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Guadalajara away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.55 + Guadalajara defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Guadalajara attack 1.00 + Barakaldo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barakaldo scores more
53%
level
25%
Guadalajara scores more
22%

Barakaldo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Guadalajara

Barakaldo beat Guadalajara 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Lasesarre in Barakaldo.