Barakaldo 1–2 Ejea: Result & Stats

Barakaldo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ejea

Aitor Seguín 37'

Rubén Garcés 90+3'

Cristian Carracedo 11'

4/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Barakaldo37%

×Draw28%

Ejea35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarakaldoExpected goals in this matchEjea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.19

Barakaldo

1.22

Ejea

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

1.29

creates per match

0.92

1.46

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Barakaldo

1.29

Ejea

0.92

allows per match

Barakaldo

1.46

Ejea

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Ejea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Ejea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw

65%

Barakaldo or Ejea

72%

Draw or Ejea

63%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+

16%

Ejea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals

70%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

34%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

12%

Ejea 1+ goals

70%

Ejea 2+ goals

33%

Ejea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

51%

Ejea (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Ejea away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Ejea defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ejea attack 0.92 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barakaldo scores more

37%

level

28%

Ejea scores more

35%

Barakaldo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Cristian Carracedo

37'

Aitor Seguín

46'

Rubén Garcés← A. Mirambel

70'

Néstor Salinas← Javi Álamo

79'

Markel Etxeberría← Jon Urkiza

79'

Pablo Goñi← Alain Ribeiro

81'

Brian Martín← Dani Segovia

86'

Javi Rabanillo← Aitor Seguín

86'

Txaber Ajuriagoikoa← Pitu Doncel

90+3'

Rubén Garcés

Barakaldo

Ejea

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jabi Luaces

79'▲Markel Etxeberría←▼Jon Urkiza

79'▲Pablo Goñi←▼Alain Ribeiro

86'▲Javi Rabanillo←▼Aitor Seguín

86'▲Txaber Ajuriagoikoa←▼Pitu Doncel

Barakaldo substitutes

EtxeberríaGoñiRabanilloAjuriagoikoaAparicioGuerreroGrandeBengoetxeaLópez

Manager: Javi Moreno

46'▲Rubén Garcés←▼A. Mirambel

70'▲Néstor Salinas←▼Javi Álamo

81'▲Brian Martín←▼Dani Segovia

Ejea substitutes

GarcésSalinasMartínCalinLlamasPérezMartínez

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Barakaldo 1–2 Ejea

Ejea beat Barakaldo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 7, 2021.

Goals: Cristian Carracedo (11'), Aitor Seguín (37'), Rubén Garcés (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.

Barakaldo vs Ejea — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Barakaldo 1–2 Ejea