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Barakaldo vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Barakaldo61%
×Draw22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.89
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.89

Barakaldo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
2.12
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Barakaldo
0.85
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
83%
Barakaldo or Aurrerá Ondarroa
78%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
39%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
36%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
85%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
56%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
29%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
59%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
78%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 2.12 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Barakaldo defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barakaldo scores more
61%
level
22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
17%

Barakaldo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Barakaldo beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.