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Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
Preview
15:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
10/4/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo de Lasesarre
Big match
55%
Barakaldo
model favours
55%25%20%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barakaldo55%
×Draw25%
Arenas Getxo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.61
Arenas Getxo
0.85

Barakaldo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.55
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Barakaldo
0.92
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
80%
Barakaldo or Arenas Getxo
75%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
45%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
30%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
80%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
48%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
22%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
57%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
74%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.55 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Barakaldo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barakaldo scores more
55%
level
25%
Arenas Getxo scores more
20%

Barakaldo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Barakaldo
DWWLW
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barakaldo host Arenas Getxo

October 4, 2026: Barakaldo take on Arenas Getxo in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barakaldo host Arenas Getxo at Campo de Lasesarre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.