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Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
11/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barakaldo37%
×Draw27%
Arenas Getxo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.27
Arenas Getxo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
64%
Barakaldo or Arenas Getxo
73%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
63%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
16%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
72%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
36%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
14%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
71%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
35%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
51%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barakaldo scores more
37%
level
27%
Arenas Getxo scores more
36%

Barakaldo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Barakaldo 0–0 Arenas Getxo

Barakaldo and Arenas Getxo drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.