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Barakaldo vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
CANC
00:00
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Barakaldo33%
×Draw28%
Amorebieta39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.14
Amorebieta
1.27

Amorebieta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Amorebieta
1.07

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Amorebieta
0.98

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
61%
Barakaldo or Amorebieta
72%
Draw or Amorebieta
67%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
13%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
68%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
32%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
11%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
72%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
36%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
46%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barakaldo scores more
33%
level
28%
Amorebieta scores more
39%

Amorebieta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barakaldo vs Amorebieta — Match Preview

Barakaldo face Amorebieta on April 19, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barakaldo host Amorebieta at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.