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Banyoles vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Banyoles
Banyoles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Camp Nou de Banyoles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Banyoles43%
×Draw30%
San Cristóbal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banyoles
1.17
San Cristóbal
0.85

Banyoles creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 108 away

creates per match

Banyoles
1.18
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Banyoles
0.93
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Banyoles+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banyoles ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Banyoles or draw
73%
Banyoles or San Cristóbal
70%
Draw or San Cristóbal
57%

Winning margin

Banyoles wins by 2+
19%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Banyoles 1+ goals
69%
Banyoles 2+ goals
33%
Banyoles 3+ goals
11%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
57%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
21%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Banyoles (draw refunded)
62%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banyoles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banyoles attack 1.18 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Banyoles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banyoles scores more
43%
level
30%
San Cristóbal scores more
27%

Banyoles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banyoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banyoles vs San Cristóbal

Banyoles beat San Cristóbal 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Nou de Banyoles in Banyoles.