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Banyoles vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Banyoles
Banyoles
CANC
00:00
Castelldefels
Castelldefels
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp Nou de Banyoles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Banyoles41%
×Draw29%
Castelldefels30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banyoles
1.21
Castelldefels
1.00

Banyoles creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 74 away

creates per match

Banyoles
1.18
Castelldefels
1.07

allows per match

Banyoles
0.93
Castelldefels
1.24

finishing

Banyoles+0.00on par
Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banyoles ↓

Castelldefels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Banyoles or draw
70%
Banyoles or Castelldefels
71%
Draw or Castelldefels
59%

Winning margin

Banyoles wins by 2+
18%
Castelldefels wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Banyoles 1+ goals
70%
Banyoles 2+ goals
34%
Banyoles 3+ goals
12%
Castelldefels 1+ goals
63%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
26%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Banyoles (draw refunded)
57%
Castelldefels (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banyoles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banyoles attack 1.18 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Banyoles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Banyoles scores more
41%
level
29%
Castelldefels scores more
30%

Banyoles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Banyoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Banyoles host Castelldefels

March 15, 2020: Banyoles take on Castelldefels in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Banyoles host Castelldefels at Camp Nou de Banyoles.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.