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Bansko vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
9/13/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Bansko50%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.54
Slivnishki geroy
1.00

Bansko creates 54% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
75%
Bansko or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
50%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
26%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
79%
Bansko 2+ goals
45%
Bansko 3+ goals
20%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
63%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
26%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
67%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bansko scores more
50%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
25%

Bansko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko 2 – 1 Slivnishki geroy

Bansko beat Slivnishki geroy 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.