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Bansko vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
3/1/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Bansko53%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Sofia II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.73
Septemvri Sofia II
1.08

Bansko creates 60% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 88 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
76%
Bansko or Septemvri Sofia II
76%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
47%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
29%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
82%
Bansko 2+ goals
52%
Bansko 3+ goals
25%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
66%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
29%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
69%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bansko scores more
53%
level
24%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
24%

Bansko at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bansko vs Septemvri Sofia II

Bansko and Septemvri Sofia II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 1, 2026.