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Bansko vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
8/17/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Bansko51%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.55
Septemvri Simitli
0.97

Bansko creates 60% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 94 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
76%
Bansko or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
49%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
26%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
79%
Bansko 2+ goals
46%
Bansko 3+ goals
20%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
62%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
25%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
68%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bansko scores more
51%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
24%

Bansko at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko 3 – 0 Septemvri Simitli

Bansko beat Septemvri Simitli 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.