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Bansko vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
CANC
15:00
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
5/23/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bansko68%
×Draw19%
Perun Kresna13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
2.10
Perun Kresna
0.78

Bansko creates 169% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
87%
Bansko or Perun Kresna
81%
Draw or Perun Kresna
32%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
43%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
88%
Bansko 2+ goals
62%
Bansko 3+ goals
35%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
54%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
18%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
84%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bansko scores more
68%
level
19%
Perun Kresna scores more
13%

Bansko at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko vs Perun Kresna — Match Preview

Bansko face Perun Kresna on May 23, 2020 in this Third League - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.