Bansko 3–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi: Result & Stats

Bansko

FT

3 – 0

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

10/16/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 13Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bansko59%

×Draw21%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanskoExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.04

Bansko

2.00

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.04

Bansko creates 92% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 78 away

1.62

creates per match

1.09

0.98

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Bansko

1.62

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

Bansko

0.98

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bansko or draw

81%

Bansko or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

79%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

41%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+

36%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals

86%

Bansko 2+ goals

59%

Bansko 3+ goals

32%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

65%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

28%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)

76%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.00

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bansko scores more

59%

level

21%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

19%

Bansko at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff