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Bansko vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
8/31/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 6Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bansko53%
×Draw26%
Levski Sofia II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.56
Levski Sofia II
0.88

Bansko creates 77% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
79%
Bansko or Levski Sofia II
74%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
47%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
28%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
79%
Bansko 2+ goals
46%
Bansko 3+ goals
21%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
59%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
22%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
71%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bansko scores more
53%
level
26%
Levski Sofia II scores more
21%

Bansko at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Bansko 2–0 Levski Sofia II

Bansko beat Levski Sofia II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.