Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bansko vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
0 – 4
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
6/1/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 34Stadion Sveti Petar (Bansko)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bansko37%
×Draw27%
FK Minyor Pernik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.26
FK Minyor Pernik
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
64%
Bansko or FK Minyor Pernik
73%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
63%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
16%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
72%
Bansko 2+ goals
36%
Bansko 3+ goals
13%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
71%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
35%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
51%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bansko scores more
37%
level
27%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
36%

Bansko at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Bansko 0–4 FK Minyor Pernik

FK Minyor Pernik beat Bansko 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar (Bansko).