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Bansko vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
1 – 0
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
2/24/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Bansko50%
×Draw24%
Balkan Botevgrad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.68
Balkan Botevgrad
1.13

Bansko creates 49% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 131 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
74%
Bansko or Balkan Botevgrad
76%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
50%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
27%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
81%
Bansko 2+ goals
50%
Bansko 3+ goals
24%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
68%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
31%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
66%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bansko scores more
50%
level
24%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
26%

Bansko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bansko vs Balkan Botevgrad

Bansko beat Balkan Botevgrad 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.