Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baños Ciudad de Fuego vs Deportivo Cuenca — Copa Ecuador 2022

Baños Ciudad de Fuego
Baños Ciudad de Fuego
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuencaadvanced
8/8/2025Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 32Estadio Jose Silva Romo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Baños Ciudad de Fuego28%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Cuenca46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baños Ciudad de Fuego
1.08
Deportivo Cuenca
1.46

Deportivo Cuenca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Baños Ciudad de Fuego
0.67
Deportivo Cuenca
1.25

allows per match

Baños Ciudad de Fuego
1.67
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Baños Ciudad de Fuego+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baños Ciudad de Fuego ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baños Ciudad de Fuego or draw
54%
Baños Ciudad de Fuego or Deportivo Cuenca
74%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
72%

Winning margin

Baños Ciudad de Fuego wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Baños Ciudad de Fuego 1+ goals
66%
Baños Ciudad de Fuego 2+ goals
29%
Baños Ciudad de Fuego 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baños Ciudad de Fuego (draw refunded)
38%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baños Ciudad de Fuego at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baños Ciudad de Fuego attack 0.67 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.25 + Baños Ciudad de Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baños Ciudad de Fuego scores more
28%
level
26%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
46%

Deportivo Cuenca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baños Ciudad de Fuego vs Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca beat Baños Ciudad de Fuego 2-0 in Copa Ecuador on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Silva Romo in Baños de Agua Santa.