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Bankstown City Lions vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
FT
1 – 2
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
4/22/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bankstown City Lions49%
×Draw23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankstown City Lions
1.79
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.28

Bankstown City Lions creates 40% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.60
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.25
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw
73%
Bankstown City Lions or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
77%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
51%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
27%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
83%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
53%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
26%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
72%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
37%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
64%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more
49%
level
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
27%

Bankstown City Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bankstown City Lions vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat Bankstown City Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.