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CRB vs Juazeirense — Copa do Nordeste 2020

CRB
CRB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juazeirense
Juazeirense
5/14/2019Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Pre-Qualifying RoundEstádio Rei Pelé (Maceió, Alagoas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CRB64%
×Draw21%
Juazeirense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.91
Juazeirense
0.76

CRB creates 151% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

CRB
1.67
Juazeirense
0.64

allows per match

CRB
0.87
Juazeirense
2.14

finishing

CRB+0.00on par
Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Juazeirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CRB or draw
86%
CRB or Juazeirense
79%
Draw or Juazeirense
36%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
39%
Juazeirense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
85%
CRB 2+ goals
57%
CRB 3+ goals
30%
Juazeirense 1+ goals
53%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
18%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
82%
Juazeirense (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.67 + Juazeirense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.91

Juazeirense attack 0.64 + CRB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CRB scores more
64%
level
21%
Juazeirense scores more
14%

CRB at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: CRB 2–1 Juazeirense

CRB beat Juazeirense 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on May 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió, Alagoas).